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Cotton Price "Bear" Coming Cotton Price Is Expected To Continue To Fall

2013/12/13 15:40:00 67

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 as of December 6, 2013, China's cotton reserves reached 10 million 315 thousand tons, and the pressure on storage capacity and capital was huge. The government has strong desire to reduce reserve cotton stocks. But from the cost point of view, Xinjiang's cotton production accounts for about 43% of the total output in China's largest cotton producing area in recent three years, accounting for about 15% of the world's total. In 2013, the cost of cotton planting in Xinjiang was 2100 yuan / mu (hand picking), and the cost of machine picked cotton was only about 1600 yuan / mu. According to the average calculation of 360 kg per mu, the cost of lint cotton is 12400 yuan / ton (hand picked) and 8900 yuan / ton (machine production). Compared with 20400 yuan / ton, the reserve price has a huge profit, that is, as long as China continues to implement the policy of open and unlimited storage and storage, the largest cotton area in China will not be significantly reduced. Unreasonable domestic and foreign cotton price differential will continue to make China a target= "_blank" href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/" > textile < /a > a target= "_blank" href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/" > clothing "no" > order loss, cotton consumption atrophy, cotton production continues to flow into national storage stock, and market vicious cycle. Therefore, the policy adjustment is expected to be very strong in 2014. 
In the foreign countries, in 2013, the harvest area of the us a href= "http://sjfzxm.com/news/index_s.asp" > cotton < /a > was at a low level for nearly 30 years in 2013. Therefore, the decline of the US cotton area was limited, but the increase of the yield per unit area may increase the output of cotton in the United States. Although the area of cotton planting decreased, the yield per unit level increased with the increase of planting technology; the water resources in Australia were adequate, and the cotton planting area would remain stable; the high price dumping and the possible direct subsidy policy in China were expected to keep the cotton planting area stable, that is, although the output of the whole cotton could continue to decline in the 2014/15 year, the decline was limited, and the production and consumption of P might be balanced. But as of the end of July 2014, the end of the world's cotton inventory will reach 20 million 839 thousand tons, huge inventory and China's cotton policy adjustment policy pressure will bring global cotton prices to maintain long-term decline. If China cancels the policy of open and unlimited purchase and storage, more than 6 million tons of cotton will enter the market and the low price of the international cotton market. 
 looking ahead, it is estimated that the world's < a href= "http://sjfzxm.com/news/index_s.asp" > cotton price < /a > close to planting costs. The international ICE cotton price in the first half of 2014 or fell to 70 cents / pound line, and then is expected to continue to fall under the pressure of new cotton listing in China.